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Too much credit can stymie growth
From Dr Ugo Panizza

Sir, You correctly point out that rapid credit growth often leads to financial crises (“Slowing emerging markets face debt hangover”, July 6). This was shown in a seminal 1999 American Economic Review article by Graciela Kaminsky and Carmen Reinhart. What is, perhaps, less known is that large financial sectors can reduce economic growth, even during tranquil times.

Nobel laureate James Tobin provided the intuition in a 1984 article in which he stated: “We are throwing more and more of our resources, including the cream of our
youth, into financial activities remote from the production of goods and services, into activities that generate high private rewards disproportionate to their social

In a new International Monetary Fund working paper entitled “Too much finance?”, Jean Louis Arcand, Enrico Berkes and I provide empirical support for the idea that “too much” private credit can reduce economic growth. In particular, our results suggest that finance starts having a negative effect on output growth when credit to the private sector surpasses 100 per cent of gross domestic product.

The IMF working paper is available at this link:

A Vox.Eu piece that describes our results is available at this link:
Ugo Panizza,
Geneva, Switzerland 

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